Blue hydrogen market seen reaching 7.89 million tons by 2031

Mordor Intelligence projects the global blue hydrogen market will grow from 0.81 million tons in 2026 to 7.89 million tons by 2031 as carbon capture, ammonia trade and industrial demand expand. Asia-Pacific is shaping up as the main growth center, while high costs and energy penalties remain a drag on wider adoption.

Why it matters: - The blue hydrogen market is moving from a niche industrial option toward a larger part of the low-carbon fuel mix. - Mordor Intelligence projects global demand to rise sharply through 2031, with Asia-Pacific leading growth. - The outlook matters for refiners, chemical makers and ammonia producers trying to cut emissions without fully shifting away from natural gas.

What happened: - Mordor Intelligence said the global blue hydrogen market is projected to increase from 0.81 million tons in 2026 to 7.89 million tons by 2031. - The forecast implies a 57.64% CAGR during 2026-2031. - The market intelligence firm published the outlook alongside a regional view showing Asia-Pacific as a key growth engine. - The report was released from Hyderabad, Telangana, India, on November 4, 2026.

The details: - Blue hydrogen growth is being supported by blue ammonia supply agreements with Japan and South Korea. - Investment in autothermal reforming plants with carbon capture is advancing, helped by the US IRA 45V tax credit and EU regulations. - Shared carbon capture and storage infrastructure across the US Gulf Coast, North Sea and Alberta is lowering project costs. - Saudi Arabia's blue ammonia exports to Japan have shown how ammonia can move hydrogen over long distances. - South Korea is investing in ammonia-cracking infrastructure to support regional supply chains. - Chemical manufacturers are using blue hydrogen as a lower-carbon feedstock for ammonia and methanol production. - Demand is also rising in fertilizer manufacturing and marine fuel production as companies try to meet emissions rules. - Carbon capture incentives and demand for certified low-carbon products are pushing producers toward long-term supply agreements. - The market is segmented by technology into steam methane reforming plus CCS, autothermal reforming plus CCS, gas partial oxidation plus CCS, natural gas pyrolysis/NGD, and integrated SMR-ATR hybrid. - End-user segments include refining, chemicals, iron and steel, transportation and other industries such as cement, glass and food.

Between the lines: - Blue hydrogen faces a cost problem even as policy support improves. - Carbon capture adds energy use, which raises feedstock consumption and operating costs. - Autothermal reforming can improve efficiency, but it also requires extra oxygen supply infrastructure. - High natural gas prices in Europe are pressuring production economics. - Hydrogen pyrolysis remains early-stage, so it is not yet a near-term substitute at scale. - The report suggests blue hydrogen may stay strongest in industrial applications where buyers value emissions cuts more than maximum efficiency.

What's next: - Asia-Pacific is likely to remain the main battleground for production and trade, especially as China expands production and storage projects. - Japan and South Korea are expected to keep building import terminals and supply chains. - India is exploring blue hydrogen production, but wider adoption will depend on policy support and carbon pricing. - Europe is expected to keep backing low-carbon fuel projects and industrial clusters even as gas prices and storage rules slow some developments. - Saudi Arabia and Brazil are looking at export opportunities, with Northeast Asia a possible destination for those volumes. - CF Industries, JERA and Mitsui broke ground in August 2026 on the Blue Point One project in Louisiana, a roughly $3.7 billion facility expected to start operations in 2029 and produce 1.4 million metric tons of ammonia a year. - Aramco completed in March 2025 the acquisition of a 50% stake in Blue Hydrogen Industrial Gases Company, a joint venture aimed at producing lower-carbon hydrogen in Jubail, Saudi Arabia.

The bottom line: - Blue hydrogen is gaining momentum where carbon capture, ammonia logistics and industrial demand overlap, but high costs and energy penalties still limit how fast the market can scale.